MARITIME CHOKEPOINT

What Happens If the Strait of Hormuz Closes

Strait of Hormuz · Held by 🇮🇷 Iran · Measured across 4,320 simulated wars

Hormuz is the chokepoint every oil desk watches, and in this model it is the one that reopens. Closing a strait takes two things — the will to do it and the means to keep doing it — and the state holding this one is also the state most likely to be bombed out of its anti-ship batteries. The model separates those two terms, so what you see here is not a strait that stays shut: it is a strait that shuts, gets degraded, and opens again while the war goes on.

How a closure escalates

The engine sets a level per strait per round, and it is the lower of two terms: how badly the holder wants the strait shut, and whether it still has the ships, mines and coastal missiles to keep it shut. Willingness only ratchets up — a state that has been hit has less reason to reopen, not more. Capability is the only term that can fall, which is why a closure here is not permanent.

1. Harassment — warnings issued to commercial vessels
2. Partial blockade — ships targeted without authorization, and dependent states start losing cargo
3. Full control — transit forbidden without authorization

Who loses their sea lane

Share of all simulated wars in which this state is cut off by a partial blockade or worse.

The wars that close it

Opening moves that most often end with this strait shut. Click one to run it.

Run a war that closes it

The other gate